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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Mar 06 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 65 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Mar 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z

Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M5 event observed at 06/0228Z from Region 3243 (N18W78). There are currently 11 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (07 Mar, 08 Mar, 09 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 631 km/s at 06/0854Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 05/2158Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 06/0453Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3789 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (07 Mar), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (08 Mar) and quiet levels on day three (09 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 07 Mar to 09 Mar
Class M55%55%55%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       06 Mar 188
  Predicted   07 Mar-09 Mar 190/195/190
  90 Day Mean        06 Mar 170

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 05 Mar  017/019
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 06 Mar  013/017
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 07 Mar-09 Mar  013/016-008/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Mar to 09 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%25%15%
Minor storm15%10%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm30%25%20%
Major-severe storm45%35%20%

All times in UTC

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