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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Mar 06 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 65 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Mar 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M5 event observed at
06/0228Z from Region 3243 (N18W78). There are currently 11 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(07 Mar, 08 Mar, 09 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 631 km/s at 06/0854Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 05/2158Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
06/0453Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 3789 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (07 Mar), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (08 Mar) and quiet levels on day three (09 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 07 Mar to 09 Mar
| Class M | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Mar 188 Predicted 07 Mar-09 Mar 190/195/190 90 Day Mean 06 Mar 170
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Mar 017/019 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Mar 013/017 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Mar-09 Mar 013/016-008/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Mar to 09 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 45% | 35% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
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| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/11/10 | Kp5+ (G1) |
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| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
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