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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Apr 15 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 105 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Apr 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 14/2327Z from Region 3282 (N11E52). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (16 Apr, 17 Apr, 18 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 433 km/s at 15/0910Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 15/0034Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 14/2107Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 142 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (16 Apr, 17 Apr) and quiet levels on day three (18 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 16 Apr to 18 Apr
Class M50%50%50%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       15 Apr 176
  Predicted   16 Apr-18 Apr 180/178/168
  90 Day Mean        15 Apr 164

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 14 Apr  010/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 15 Apr  009/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 16 Apr-18 Apr  009/010-007/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Apr to 18 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%20%10%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm25%25%20%
Major-severe storm35%30%15%

All times in UTC

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