Viewing archive of Saturday, 15 April 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Apr 15 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 105 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Apr 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
14/2327Z from Region 3282 (N11E52). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (16 Apr, 17 Apr, 18 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 433 km/s at 15/0910Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 15/0034Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
14/2107Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 142 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (16 Apr, 17 Apr)
and quiet levels on day three (18 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 16 Apr to 18 Apr
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Apr 176 Predicted 16 Apr-18 Apr 180/178/168 90 Day Mean 15 Apr 164
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Apr 010/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Apr 009/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Apr-18 Apr 009/010-007/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Apr to 18 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 35% | 30% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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