Viewing archive of Sunday, 16 April 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Apr 16 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 106 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Apr 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at
16/1744Z. There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (17 Apr, 18 Apr, 19 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 1196 km/s at 16/0034Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at
16/0109Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
16/1821Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 165 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (17 Apr, 18 Apr, 19
Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 17 Apr to 19 Apr
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Apr 178 Predicted 17 Apr-19 Apr 178/170/168 90 Day Mean 16 Apr 164
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Apr 008/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Apr 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Apr-19 Apr 005/005-006/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Apr to 19 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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