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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Mar 20 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 79 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Mar 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 20/0148Z from Region 3256 (S20E39). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (21 Mar, 22 Mar, 23 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 486 km/s at 20/1126Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 20/2034Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 20/1335Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 335 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (21 Mar) and quiet levels on days two and three (22 Mar, 23 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 21 Mar to 23 Mar
Class M25%25%25%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       20 Mar 156
  Predicted   21 Mar-23 Mar 155/150/150
  90 Day Mean        20 Mar 170

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 19 Mar  008/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 20 Mar  010/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 21 Mar-23 Mar  015/018-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Mar to 23 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%15%15%
Minor storm15%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm30%20%20%
Major-severe storm50%20%20%

All times in UTC

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