Viewing archive of Monday, 17 April 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Apr 17 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 107 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Apr 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at
17/0633Z from Region 3281 (S22E14). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (18 Apr, 19 Apr, 20 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 532 km/s at 17/1637Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at
17/1144Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
17/1144Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 141 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (18 Apr, 19 Apr, 20
Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 18 Apr to 20 Apr
| Class M | 45% | 45% | 45% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Apr 167 Predicted 18 Apr-20 Apr 170/168/168 90 Day Mean 17 Apr 163
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Apr 004/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Apr 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Apr-20 Apr 006/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Apr to 20 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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