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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Apr 18 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 108 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Apr 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at 18/1529Z from Region 3280 (S08W94). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (19 Apr, 20 Apr, 21 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 624 km/s at 18/2033Z. Total IMF reached 19 nT at 18/1612Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -16 nT at 18/1549Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 198 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (19 Apr), unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (20 Apr) and quiet to active levels on day three (21 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 19 Apr to 21 Apr
Class M40%40%40%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       18 Apr 153
  Predicted   19 Apr-21 Apr 150/145/140
  90 Day Mean        18 Apr 162

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 17 Apr  006/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 18 Apr  012/018
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 19 Apr-21 Apr  018/020-017/024-015/016

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Apr to 21 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%40%25%
Minor storm20%20%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%10%15%
Minor storm25%25%25%
Major-severe storm60%60%35%

All times in UTC

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