Viewing archive of Monday, 15 May 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 May 15 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 135 Issued at 2200Z on 15 May 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
15/0051Z from Region 3306 (S18W50). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (16 May) and expected to
be low with a chance for M-class flares on days two and three (17 May,
18 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 535 km/s at 14/2251Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
15/0433Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
15/1832Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 191 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (16 May), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (17 May) and quiet levels on day three (18 May).
III. Event Probabilities 16 May to 18 May
| Class M | 15% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 May 135 Predicted 16 May-18 May 135/140/145 90 Day Mean 15 May 156
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 May 009/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 May 003/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 May-18 May 009/012-008/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 May to 18 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 25% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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Incoming & Unnumbered Active Regions 1359Strong far side CME 338Unspecified geomagnetic activity 175150 mhz F2 51AR 13932 13
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