Viewing archive of Sunday, 11 June 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Jun 11 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 162 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jun 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
10/2116Z from Region 3323 (S08W61). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (12
Jun, 13 Jun, 14 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 479 km/s at 11/1950Z. Total IMF reached 15
nT at 11/0304Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
11/0521Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 138 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (12 Jun, 13 Jun) and
quiet levels on day three (14 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 12 Jun to 14 Jun
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Jun 154 Predicted 12 Jun-14 Jun 155/157/153 90 Day Mean 11 Jun 152
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jun 004/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jun 008/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jun-14 Jun 012/012-010/012-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jun to 14 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 25% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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