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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Jun 12 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 163 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jun 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at 12/0658Z from Region 3330 (N18W59). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (13 Jun, 14 Jun, 15 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 487 km/s at 12/1531Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 12/1559Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 12/1503Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 169 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (13 Jun) and quiet levels on days two and three (14 Jun, 15 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 13 Jun to 15 Jun
Class M15%15%15%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       12 Jun 146
  Predicted   13 Jun-15 Jun 146/148/146
  90 Day Mean        12 Jun 152

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jun  010/010
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 12 Jun  006/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 13 Jun-15 Jun  010/012-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jun to 15 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%10%10%
Minor storm05%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm20%15%15%
Major-severe storm25%10%10%

All times in UTC

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