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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Apr 23 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 113 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Apr 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
23/0640Z from Region 3279 (S19W78). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on day one (24 Apr) and likely to be low
with a chance for M-class flares on day two (25 Apr) and likely to be
low on day three (26 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to severe storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 733 km/s at 23/2057Z. Total IMF
reached 29 nT at 23/2054Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-24 nT at 23/1710Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 26 pfu at 23/1820Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 157 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to severe storm levels on day one (24 Apr), quiet to
active levels on day two (25 Apr) and quiet levels on day three (26
Apr). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a chance of crossing threshold on
day one (24 Apr) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day
two (25 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 24 Apr to 26 Apr
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 25% | 10% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Apr 135 Predicted 24 Apr-26 Apr 135/130/125 90 Day Mean 23 Apr 159
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Apr 006/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Apr 039/069 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Apr-26 Apr 032/047-013/015-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Apr to 26 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 30% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 35% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 30% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 79% | 45% | 20% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
Gillam, MB, Iqaluit, NUNuuk
Reykjavik
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