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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Mar 27 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 86 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Mar 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
27/0636Z from Region 3256 (S21W59). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (28
Mar, 29 Mar, 30 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 620 km/s at 26/2203Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
27/1246Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
27/2020Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1521 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (28 Mar), quiet levels on
day two (29 Mar) and quiet to active levels on day three (30 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 28 Mar to 30 Mar
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Mar 158 Predicted 28 Mar-30 Mar 155/145/145 90 Day Mean 27 Mar 172
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Mar 006/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Mar 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Mar-30 Mar 008/008-006/005-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Mar to 30 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 20% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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