Viewing archive of Tuesday, 28 March 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Mar 28 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 87 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Mar 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
28/1547Z from Region 3256 (S22W62). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (29
Mar, 30 Mar, 31 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 474 km/s at 28/0022Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
27/2242Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
27/2242Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1813 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (29 Mar), quiet to active levels on day
two (30 Mar) and unsettled to active levels on day three (31 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 29 Mar to 31 Mar
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Mar 159 Predicted 29 Mar-31 Mar 160/155/150 90 Day Mean 28 Mar 172
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Mar 002/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Mar 005/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Mar-31 Mar 006/005-012/018-013/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Mar to 31 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 30% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 45% | 50% |
All times in UTC
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