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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Mar 01 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 60 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Mar 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 01-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
01/0107Z from Region 3234 (N25W49). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (02 Mar, 03 Mar, 04 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 721 km/s at 28/2253Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 01/0756Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
28/2347Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 3729 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (02 Mar), quiet levels on
day two (03 Mar) and quiet to active levels on day three (04 Mar).
Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and
three (02 Mar, 03 Mar, 04 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 02 Mar to 04 Mar
| Class M | 50% | 45% | 45% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Mar 162 Predicted 02 Mar-04 Mar 164/162/158 90 Day Mean 01 Mar 168
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Feb 019/024 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Mar 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Mar-04 Mar 008/008-006/005-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Mar to 04 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 15% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 20% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 20% | 40% |
All times in UTC
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