Solar activity report

Viewing archive of Tuesday, 28 February 2023

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Feb 28 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 59 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Feb 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z

Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M8 event observed at 28/1750Z from Region 3234 (N25W36). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast

Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (01 Mar, 02 Mar, 03 Mar).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 784 km/s at 27/2141Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 28/1435Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 28/0044Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 735 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (01 Mar), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (02 Mar) and quiet levels on day three (03 Mar). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (01 Mar, 02 Mar, 03 Mar).

III. Event Probabilities 01 Mar to 03 Mar

Class M	50%	50%	45%
Class X	15%	15%	10%
Proton	10%	10%	10%
PCAF	green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  Observed       28 Feb 161
  Predicted   01 Mar-03 Mar 160/160/156
  90 Day Mean        28 Feb 168

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  Observed Afr/Ap 27 Feb  060/109
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 28 Feb  018/024
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 01 Mar-03 Mar  013/016-008/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Mar to 03 Mar

A. Middle Latitudes
Active	40%	25%	15%
Minor storm	25%	05%	01%
Major-severe storm	05%	01%	01%

B. High Latitudes
Active	10%	20%	15%
Minor storm	25%	30%	20%
Major-severe storm	60%	30%	20%

All times in UTC

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The solar wind speed is currently moderately high (504.1 km/sec.)
The density of the solar wind is moderate (26.27 p/cm³)

The strength of the interplanetary magnetic field is moderate (11nT), the direction is North (5.34nT).

The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts moderate storm conditions right now (-66nT)

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