Viewing archive of Wednesday, 1 February 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Feb 01 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 32 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Feb 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
01/1801Z. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (02
Feb, 03 Feb, 04 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 484 km/s at 01/0110Z. Total IMF reached 11
nT at 01/1823Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at
01/1756Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 708 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (02 Feb) and quiet levels
on days two and three (03 Feb, 04 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 02 Feb to 04 Feb
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Feb 134 Predicted 02 Feb-04 Feb 135/135/140 90 Day Mean 01 Feb 152
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Jan 006/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Feb 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Feb-04 Feb 007/010-006/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Feb to 04 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 10% | 10% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
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