Solar activity report

Viewing archive of Wednesday, 17 May 2023

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 May 17 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 137 Issued at 2200Z on 17 May 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at 17/1628Z. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast

Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (18 May, 19 May, 20 May).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 488 km/s at 16/2101Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 16/2105Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 17/0016Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 162 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (18 May, 19 May) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (20 May).

III. Event Probabilities 18 May to 20 May

Class M	25%	25%	25%
Class X	05%	05%	05%
Proton	01%	01%	01%
PCAF	green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  Observed       17 May 138
  Predicted   18 May-20 May 140/138/135
  90 Day Mean        17 May 155

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  Observed Afr/Ap 16 May  010/009
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 17 May  004/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 18 May-20 May  006/005-006/005-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 May to 20 May

A. Middle Latitudes
Active	10%	10%	20%
Minor storm	05%	01%	05%
Major-severe storm	01%	01%	01%

B. High Latitudes
Active	15%	15%	15%
Minor storm	20%	20%	20%
Major-severe storm	15%	10%	25%

All times in UTC

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The solar wind speed is currently moderately high (504.1 km/sec.)
The density of the solar wind is moderate (26.27 p/cm³)

The strength of the interplanetary magnetic field is moderate (11nT), the direction is North (5.34nT).

The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts moderate storm conditions right now (-66nT)

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