Viewing archive of Thursday, 25 May 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 May 25 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 145 Issued at 2200Z on 25 May 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
25/1446Z from Region 3312 (S24W12). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (26 May, 27 May,
28 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 689 km/s at 25/1050Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 25/1134Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
25/1135Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 3826 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (26 May), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (27 May) and quiet levels on day three (28 May).
III. Event Probabilities 26 May to 28 May
| Class M | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 May 152 Predicted 26 May-28 May 150/155/155 90 Day Mean 25 May 153
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 May 010/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 May 012/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 May-28 May 013/015-008/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 May to 28 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 50% | 25% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/12/08 | X2.2 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/12/22 | M1.0 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/12/17 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
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| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
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| November 2024 | 152.5 -13.9 |
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| Last 30 days | 115.4 -40.8 |