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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Jun 21 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 172 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jun 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
21/1244Z from Region 3341 (S15E48). There are currently 11 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (22 Jun, 23 Jun, 24 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 485 km/s at 21/2047Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 21/1229Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
21/2021Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1222 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (22 Jun, 23 Jun) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (24 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 22 Jun to 24 Jun
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Jun 176 Predicted 22 Jun-24 Jun 175/180/180 90 Day Mean 21 Jun 154
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jun 013/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Jun 006/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Jun-24 Jun 010/012-010/014-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jun to 24 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 35% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 35% | 50% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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