Viewing archive of Tuesday, 18 July 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Jul 18 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 199 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jul 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M5 event observed at
18/0006Z from Region 3363 (S21W86). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on day one (19 Jul) and
expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance
for an X-class flare on days two and three (20 Jul, 21 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 556 km/s at 17/2204Z. Total IMF
reached 7 nT at 17/2134Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-6 nT at 18/0121Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 619 pfu at 18/0615Z. Electrons greater than 2
MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 936 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (19 Jul, 21 Jul)
and quiet to minor storm levels on day two (20 Jul). Protons are
expected to cross threshold on day one (19 Jul), are likely to cross
threshold on day two (20 Jul) and have a chance of crossing threshold on
day three (21 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 19 Jul to 21 Jul
| Class M | 55% | 45% | 45% |
| Class X | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Proton | 95% | 70% | 50% |
| PCAF | red | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Jul 219 Predicted 19 Jul-21 Jul 210/210/210 90 Day Mean 18 Jul 161
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jul 019/023 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Jul 016/021 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Jul-21 Jul 010/012-018/028-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jul to 21 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 30% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 15% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 50% | 40% |
All times in UTC
Latest news
Friday, 1 November 2024
X2.0 solar flare
Wednesday, 9 October 2024
X1.8 solar flare, severe geomagnetic storm watch
Tuesday, 8 October 2024
Double X-flares, glancing blow possible
Latest forum messages
AR13883 2024/11/04 CME 14AR 13883 106Unspecified geomagnetic activity 1556Coronal holes 32The 2024 Aurora Summit prize winner is... 2
More topicsSupport SpaceWeatherLive.com!
A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!
Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/10/31 | X2.03 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/11/05 | M4.1 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/10/12 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| September 2024 | 141.4 -74.1 |
| November 2024 | 215.8 +74.4 |
| Last 30 days | 160.9 +7.7 |