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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Jun 20 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 171 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Jun 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at
20/1709Z from Region 3341 (S15E58). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(21 Jun, 22 Jun, 23 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 503 km/s at 19/2255Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 20/0914Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
20/1151Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 2203 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (21 Jun, 22 Jun) and
quiet levels on day three (23 Jun). Protons have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (21 Jun, 22 Jun, 23 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 21 Jun to 23 Jun
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Class X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Proton | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Jun 180 Predicted 21 Jun-23 Jun 180/185/190 90 Day Mean 20 Jun 153
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Jun 009/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Jun 010/013 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Jun-23 Jun 011/012-010/012-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Jun to 23 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 35% | 35% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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