Solar activity report

Viewing archive of Thursday, 15 June 2023

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Jun 15 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 166 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jun 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at 15/1255Z from Region 3336 (S21E54). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast

Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (16 Jun, 17 Jun, 18 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 506 km/s at 14/2214Z. Total IMF reached 19 nT at 15/2046Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at 15/1634Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 150 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (16 Jun) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (17 Jun, 18 Jun).

III. Event Probabilities 16 Jun to 18 Jun

Class M	20%	20%	20%
Class X	05%	05%	05%
Proton	01%	01%	01%
PCAF	green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  Observed       15 Jun 153
  Predicted   16 Jun-18 Jun 155/160/160
  90 Day Mean        15 Jun 153

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jun  005/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 15 Jun  015/022
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 16 Jun-18 Jun  017/018-010/012-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jun to 18 Jun

A. Middle Latitudes
Active	35%	25%	15%
Minor storm	15%	10%	05%
Major-severe storm	01%	01%	01%

B. High Latitudes
Active	15%	15%	15%
Minor storm	20%	20%	15%
Major-severe storm	20%	25%	15%

All times in UTC

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Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Oulu, Rovaniemi, Sodankylä, Utsjoki
Reykjavik
Kirkenes, Tromsø
Murmansk
Kiruna, Luleå

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Tórshavn
Kuopio
Bergen, Trondheim
Arkhangelsk, Vorkuta
Sundsvall, Umeå

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following middle latitude regions in the near future

Tampere

The solar wind speed is currently moderately high (529.5 km/sec.)

The strength of the interplanetary magnetic field is moderate (19.71nT), the direction is slightly South (-9.01nT).

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This day in history*

Solar flares
1	2001	M2.65
2	2013	M2.32
3	2000	M1.51
4	2001	M1.41
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		Dst	G
1	1990	-136	G3
2	1998	-85	G2
3	2001	-83
4	1974	-77	G3
5	1989	-75

*since 1994