Viewing archive of Friday, 19 May 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 May 19 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 139 Issued at 2200Z on 19 May 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M5 event observed at
19/0048Z from Region 3311 (N17E60). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (20 May, 21
May, 22 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 373 km/s at 19/2059Z. Total IMF reached 12
nT at 19/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
19/2038Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 318 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (20 May, 21 May) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (22 May). Protons have a slight
chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (20 May, 21
May, 22 May).
III. Event Probabilities 20 May to 22 May
| Class M | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| Class X | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 May 165 Predicted 20 May-22 May 165/165/160 90 Day Mean 19 May 153
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 May 008/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 May 005/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 May-22 May 009/010-010/012-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 May to 22 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 25% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 40% | 30% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
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