Viewing archive of Tuesday, 11 July 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Jul 11 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 192 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jul 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M6 event observed at
11/1808Z from Region 3372 (N22E75). There are currently 12 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(12 Jul, 13 Jul, 14 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 443 km/s at 11/0119Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 11/2041Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
11/0613Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 845 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (12 Jul, 13 Jul) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (14 Jul). Protons have a slight
chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (12 Jul, 13
Jul, 14 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 12 Jul to 14 Jul
| Class M | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| Class X | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Jul 214 Predicted 12 Jul-14 Jul 210/208/204 90 Day Mean 11 Jul 159
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jul 006/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jul 007/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jul-14 Jul 010/012-011/014-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jul to 14 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 35% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 30% | 15% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
NorilskLatest news
Wednesday, 5 March 2025
Coronal hole faces Earth
Sunday, 23 February 2025
X2.0 solar flare from sunspot region 4001
Friday, 7 February 2025
Coronal hole faces Earth, Minor G1 geomagnetic storm watch
Latest forum messages
Coronal Hole 13 21Filaments and prominences 709AR 4016 9Unspecified geomagnetic activity 2114AR 4012 29
More topicsSupport SpaceWeatherLive.com!
A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!
Latest alerts
Wednesday, 5 March 2025
Coronal hole faces Earth
A coronal hole is facing our planet today which is sending a high speed solar wind stream towards us which could cause enhanced geomagnetic conditions (and thus aurora!) in the days ahead.
12:09 UTC - Solar flare
Moderate M1.79 flare from sunspot region 4006
11:54 UTC - Radio Blackout
Minor R1 radio blackout in progress (≥M1 - current: M1.79)
Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2025/02/23 | X2.0 |
| Last M-flare | 2025/03/05 | M1.7 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2025/02/28 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| January 2025 | 137 -17.5 |
| March 2025 | 124.8 -12.2 |
| Last 30 days | 145.3 +2.5 |