Viewing archive of Tuesday, 11 July 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Jul 11 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 192 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jul 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M6 event observed at
11/1808Z from Region 3372 (N22E75). There are currently 12 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(12 Jul, 13 Jul, 14 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 443 km/s at 11/0119Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 11/2041Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
11/0613Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 845 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (12 Jul, 13 Jul) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (14 Jul). Protons have a slight
chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (12 Jul, 13
Jul, 14 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 12 Jul to 14 Jul
| Class M | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| Class X | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Jul 214 Predicted 12 Jul-14 Jul 210/208/204 90 Day Mean 11 Jul 159
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jul 006/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jul 007/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jul-14 Jul 010/012-011/014-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jul to 14 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 35% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 30% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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