Solar activity report

Viewing archive of Monday, 7 August 2023

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Aug 07 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 219 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Aug 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z

Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was an X1 event observed at 07/2046Z from Region 3386 (N11W0*). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast

Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (08 Aug, 09 Aug) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day three (10 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 504 km/s at 07/1942Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 07/1156Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 07/0136Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4 pfu at 07/0245Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 153 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to major storm levels on day one (08 Aug), quiet to active levels on day two (09 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (10 Aug). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a chance of crossing threshold on days one and two (08 Aug, 09 Aug).

III. Event Probabilities 08 Aug to 10 Aug

Class M	55%	55%	35%
Class X	10%	10%	01%
Proton	25%	25%	01%
PCAF	green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  Observed       07 Aug 170
  Predicted   08 Aug-10 Aug 170/165/160
  90 Day Mean        07 Aug 166

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  Observed Afr/Ap 06 Aug  004/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 07 Aug  008/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 08 Aug-10 Aug  024/035-014/015-009/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Aug to 10 Aug

A. Middle Latitudes
Active	30%	35%	15%
Minor storm	40%	20%	05%
Major-severe storm	25%	05%	01%

B. High Latitudes
Active	05%	20%	15%
Minor storm	20%	30%	20%
Major-severe storm	70%	30%	20%

All times in UTC

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G4 - Severe geomagnetic storm

Observed Kp: 8
Threshold reached: 20:54 UTC

Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Oulu, Rovaniemi
Luleå

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Kuopio
Bergen, Trondheim
Arkhangelsk
Sundsvall, Umeå

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following middle latitude regions in the near future

Helsinki, Tampere, Turku
Petrozavodsk, Syktyvkar

The density of the solar wind is moderate (23.49 p/cm³)

The strength of the interplanetary magnetic field is moderate (12.3nT), the direction is North (5.65nT).

The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts strong storm conditions right now (-147nT)

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