Viewing archive of Sunday, 6 August 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Aug 06 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 218 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Aug 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at
05/2221Z from Region 3386 (N11W76). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on day one (07 Aug) and
expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days two and
three (08 Aug, 09 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 453 km/s at 06/0737Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at
06/0314Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
06/1623Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 17 pfu at 06/0140Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 138 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (07 Aug, 09 Aug)
and quiet to minor storm levels on day two (08 Aug). Protons have a
chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (07 Aug, 08
Aug, 09 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 07 Aug to 09 Aug
| Class M | 55% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Aug 174 Predicted 07 Aug-09 Aug 168/166/164 90 Day Mean 06 Aug 166
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Aug 024/030 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Aug 004/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Aug-09 Aug 009/012-014/020-009/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Aug to 09 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 40% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 30% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 10% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 50% | 20% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
Edmonton, AB, Gillam, MB, Saskatoon, SK, Whitehorse, YT, Yellowknife, NTAnchorage, AK, Fairbanks, AK, Juneau, AK
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