Viewing archive of Monday, 4 September 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Sep 04 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 247 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Sep 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
04/1106Z from Region 3413. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot
regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (05
Sep, 06 Sep, 07 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 467 km/s at 04/0029Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 03/2326Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
03/2309Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 514 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (05 Sep, 07 Sep)
and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (06 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 05 Sep to 07 Sep
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Sep 136 Predicted 05 Sep-07 Sep 138/135/138 90 Day Mean 04 Sep 163
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Sep 028/025 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Sep 009/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Sep-07 Sep 010/012-008/010-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Sep to 07 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 25% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 15% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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