Viewing archive of Saturday, 16 September 2023

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Sep 16 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 259 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Sep 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at 16/0538Z from Region 3429 (N11W22). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (17 Sep, 18 Sep, 19 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 493 km/s at 16/0223Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 16/0207Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 16/1913Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 259 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (17 Sep), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (18 Sep) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (19 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 17 Sep to 19 Sep
Class M35%25%25%
Class X05%01%01%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       16 Sep 140
  Predicted   17 Sep-19 Sep 145/140/135
  90 Day Mean        16 Sep 162

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 15 Sep  007/011
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 16 Sep  006/007
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 17 Sep-19 Sep  015/020-008/008-026/035

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Sep to 19 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%25%35%
Minor storm20%10%35%
Major-severe storm05%01%20%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%10%
Minor storm20%25%25%
Major-severe storm30%35%60%

All times in UTC

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