Viewing archive of Saturday, 16 September 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Sep 16 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 259 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Sep 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at
16/0538Z from Region 3429 (N11W22). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (17 Sep, 18 Sep,
19 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 493 km/s at 16/0223Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 16/0207Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
16/1913Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 259 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (17 Sep), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (18 Sep) and unsettled to minor storm levels
on day three (19 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 17 Sep to 19 Sep
| Class M | 35% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Sep 140 Predicted 17 Sep-19 Sep 145/140/135 90 Day Mean 16 Sep 162
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Sep 007/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Sep 006/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Sep-19 Sep 015/020-008/008-026/035
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Sep to 19 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 25% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 10% | 35% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 20% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 35% | 60% |
All times in UTC
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