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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Aug 20 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 232 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Aug 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 20/0626Z from Region 3409 (N22W70). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (21 Aug, 22 Aug, 23 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 690 km/s at 20/1200Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 20/0528Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 20/2013Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 109 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (21 Aug, 22 Aug, 23 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 21 Aug to 23 Aug
Class M15%15%15%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       20 Aug 146
  Predicted   21 Aug-23 Aug 153/153/155
  90 Day Mean        20 Aug 166

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 19 Aug  008/010
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 20 Aug  010/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 21 Aug-23 Aug  008/010-008/010-008/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Aug to 23 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm20%20%20%
Major-severe storm20%20%20%

All times in UTC

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Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Gillam, MB, Whitehorse, YT, Yellowknife, NT
Fairbanks, AK

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Edmonton, AB, Iqaluit, NU, Saskatoon, SK
Anchorage, AK, Juneau, AK

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following middle latitude regions in the near future

Calgary, AB, Winnipeg, MB
The strength of the interplanetary magnetic field is moderate (10.08nT), the direction is slightly South (-5.69nT).
The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts moderate storm conditions right now (-51nT)

S1 - Minor solar radiation storm

Minor impacts on HF radio through polar regions

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