Viewing archive of Monday, 21 August 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Aug 21 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 233 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Aug 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
21/0753Z. There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (22
Aug, 23 Aug, 24 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 686 km/s at 20/2240Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 20/2252Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
21/0723Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 229 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (22 Aug,
23 Aug, 24 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 22 Aug to 24 Aug
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Aug 149 Predicted 22 Aug-24 Aug 150/155/155 90 Day Mean 21 Aug 166
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Aug 012/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Aug 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Aug-24 Aug 008/010-008/010-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Aug to 24 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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