Viewing archive of Tuesday, 25 July 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Jul 25 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 206 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Jul 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
25/0203Z from Region 3376 (N23W68). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (26 Jul, 27 Jul,
28 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 459 km/s at 24/2131Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 25/1528Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
25/1915Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 6 pfu at 24/2100Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 342 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (26 Jul), quiet to minor
storm levels on day two (27 Jul) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (28 Jul). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a chance of crossing
threshold on day one (26 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 26 Jul to 28 Jul
| Class M | 40% | 35% | 25% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 25% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Jul 169 Predicted 26 Jul-28 Jul 168/162/162 90 Day Mean 25 Jul 164
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Jul 008/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Jul 006/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Jul-28 Jul 008/012-018/022-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Jul to 28 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 35% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 25% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 45% | 15% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
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