Viewing archive of Wednesday, 26 July 2023

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Jul 26 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 207 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jul 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M4 event observed at 26/1037Z from Region 3376 (N23W82). There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (27 Jul, 28 Jul, 29 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 587 km/s at 26/1614Z. Total IMF reached 15 nT at 25/2213Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -13 nT at 25/2213Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 330 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (27 Jul), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (28 Jul) and quiet levels on day three (29 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 27 Jul to 29 Jul
Class M35%25%25%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       26 Jul 167
  Predicted   27 Jul-29 Jul 168/165/162
  90 Day Mean        26 Jul 164

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jul  012/014
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 26 Jul  017/023
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 27 Jul-29 Jul  017/020-008/010-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jul to 29 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%20%10%
Minor storm25%05%01%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%20%15%
Minor storm25%20%15%
Major-severe storm45%15%10%

All times in UTC

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