Viewing archive of Thursday, 27 July 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Jul 27 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 208 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Jul 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
27/0951Z from Region 3376 (N22W96). There are currently 11 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (28 Jul, 29 Jul,
30 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 548 km/s at 26/2307Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 27/0232Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at
27/1038Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 661 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (28 Jul, 29 Jul) and quiet to
active levels on day three (30 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 28 Jul to 30 Jul
| Class M | 35% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Jul 165 Predicted 28 Jul-30 Jul 165/162/158 90 Day Mean 27 Jul 164
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Jul 023/024 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Jul 010/011 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Jul-30 Jul 006/005-006/005-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Jul to 30 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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