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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Jun 28 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 179 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Jun 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
28/0844Z from Region 3340 (N23W72). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (29 Jun, 30 Jun, 01 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 501 km/s at 28/0020Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
28/1001Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
27/2119Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 3512 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (29 Jun, 30 Jun) and quiet to
active levels on day three (01 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 29 Jun to 01 Jul
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Jun 155 Predicted 29 Jun-01 Jul 155/150/150 90 Day Mean 28 Jun 154
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Jun 007/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Jun 007/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Jun-01 Jul 006/005-006/005-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Jun to 01 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 10% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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