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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Sep 20 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 263 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Sep 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z

Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M8 event observed at 20/1419Z from Region 3435 (N09E29). There are currently 11 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate on days one, two, and three (21 Sep, 22 Sep, 23 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 567 km/s at 19/2211Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 20/0548Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 20/0859Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2923 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (21 Sep, 23 Sep) and quiet to active levels on day two (22 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 21 Sep to 23 Sep
Class M55%55%55%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       20 Sep 156
  Predicted   21 Sep-23 Sep 155/152/153
  90 Day Mean        20 Sep 161

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 19 Sep  038/038
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 20 Sep  012/016
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 21 Sep-23 Sep  008/008-011/015-011/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Sep to 23 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%35%30%
Minor storm05%15%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%10%10%
Minor storm20%30%25%
Major-severe storm20%50%50%

All times in UTC

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