Viewing archive of Tuesday, 19 September 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Sep 19 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 262 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Sep 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M4 event observed at
19/2014Z from Region 3435 (N09E42). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (20 Sep, 21 Sep,
22 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at active to severe storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 698 km/s at 19/0833Z. Total IMF
reached 17 nT at 18/2204Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-14 nT at 18/2149Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 2068 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (20 Sep, 22 Sep)
and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (21 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 20 Sep to 22 Sep
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Sep 166 Predicted 20 Sep-22 Sep 162/160/155 90 Day Mean 19 Sep 162
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Sep 021/041 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Sep 037/050 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Sep-22 Sep 014/016-008/008-011/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Sep to 22 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 20% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 20% | 50% |
All times in UTC
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