Viewing archive of Monday, 16 October 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Oct 16 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 289 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Oct 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at
16/1606Z. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (17
Oct, 18 Oct, 19 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 397 km/s at 15/2123Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 124 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (17 Oct, 18
Oct, 19 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 17 Oct to 19 Oct
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Oct 144 Predicted 17 Oct-19 Oct 145/145/150 90 Day Mean 16 Oct 157
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Oct 002/001 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Oct 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Oct-19 Oct 011/012-010/012-013/016
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Oct to 19 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 45% | 50% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
TórshavnOulu, Rovaniemi, Kuopio, Sodankylä, Utsjoki
Kirkenes, Tromsø, Trondheim
Arkhangelsk, Murmansk
Kiruna, Luleå, Sundsvall, Umeå
Latest news
Friday, 28 March 2025
X1.1 solar flare
Monday, 24 March 2025
Coronal hole faces Earth
Saturday, 22 March 2025
Strong G3 geomagnetic storm watch for 23 March
Latest forum messages
Sunspot Latitudes at or near Solar Maximum 85Incoming & Unnumbered Active Regions 1677AR4048 126New satellites - Proba-3, PUNCH, SWFO-L1, GOES-U/19 47AR 4054 21
More topicsSupport SpaceWeatherLive.com!
A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!
Latest alerts
15:15 UTC - Geomagnetic activity
Minor G1 geomagnetic storm (Kp5) Threshold Reached: 14:59 UTC
06:30 UTC - Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 08/04/2025 05:53 UTC Estimated Velocity: 456km/sec.
05:15 UTC - Hemispheric Power Index
The OVATION model predicts the Hemispheric Power Index to reach 50GW at 06:02 UTC
00:55 UTC - Coronal hole
A southern hemisphere coronal hole is facing Earth. Enhanced solar wind could arrive in ~3 days
Monday, 7 April 2025
20:45 UTC - Geomagnetic activity
Active geomagnetic conditions (Kp4) Threshold Reached: 20:39 UTC
Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2025/03/28 | X1.1 |
| Last M-flare | 2025/04/05 | M1.0 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2025/04/06 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| March 2025 | 134.2 -20.4 |
| April 2025 | 151.3 +17.1 |
| Last 30 days | 135.2 -4.5 |