Viewing archive of Monday, 18 September 2023

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Sep 18 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 261 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Sep 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 18/1041Z from Region 3435 (N09E56). There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (19 Sep, 20 Sep, 21 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 598 km/s at 18/1617Z. Total IMF reached 22 nT at 18/1540Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -18 nT at 18/1644Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 734 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (19 Sep), quiet to active levels on day two (20 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (21 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 19 Sep to 21 Sep
Class M20%20%20%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton05%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       18 Sep 155
  Predicted   19 Sep-21 Sep 154/154/152
  90 Day Mean        18 Sep 162

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 17 Sep  014/020
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 18 Sep  023/029
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 19 Sep-21 Sep  022/035-014/015-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Sep to 21 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%30%20%
Minor storm40%10%05%
Major-severe storm35%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active05%15%15%
Minor storm20%20%20%
Major-severe storm75%20%20%

All times in UTC

<< Go to daily overview page

Latest news

Support SpaceWeatherLive.com!

A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!

100%
Support SpaceWeatherLive with our merchandise
Check out our merchandise

Latest alerts

Get instant alerts!

Space weather facts

Last X-flare2024/10/31X2.0
Last M-flare2024/11/05M2.6
Last geomagnetic storm2024/10/12Kp5 (G1)
Spotless days
Last spotless day2022/06/08
Monthly mean Sunspot Number
September 2024141.4 -74.1
November 2024215.8 +74.4
Last 30 days161.1 +7.2

This day in history*

Solar flares
12013X4.93
21998X1.21
32014X1.14
42003M7.6
52004M5.72
DstG
12023-172G3
21991-92G2
31986-74G1
41959-73G1
51993-71G1
*since 1994

Social networks