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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Oct 02 2220 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 275 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Oct 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 02/1246Z from Region 3455 (N25E58). There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (03 Oct, 04 Oct, 05 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 488 km/s at 02/0204Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 02/0912Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 02/0648Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 283 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (03 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (04 Oct, 05 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 03 Oct to 05 Oct
Class M40%40%40%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       02 Oct 158
  Predicted   03 Oct-05 Oct 158/157/155
  90 Day Mean        02 Oct 161

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 01 Oct  009/012
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 02 Oct  008/009
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 03 Oct-05 Oct  011/014-008/008-013/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Oct to 05 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%20%35%
Minor storm15%05%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%10%
Minor storm20%20%30%
Major-severe storm30%20%55%

All times in UTC

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