Viewing archive of Monday, 2 October 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Oct 02 2220 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 275 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Oct 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
02/1246Z from Region 3455 (N25E58). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (03 Oct, 04 Oct,
05 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 488 km/s at 02/0204Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 02/0912Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
02/0648Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 283 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (03 Oct) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (04 Oct, 05 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 03 Oct to 05 Oct
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Oct 158 Predicted 03 Oct-05 Oct 158/157/155 90 Day Mean 02 Oct 161
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Oct 009/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Oct 008/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Oct-05 Oct 011/014-008/008-013/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Oct to 05 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 20% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 05% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 20% | 55% |
All times in UTC
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