Viewing archive of Tuesday, 3 October 2023

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Oct 03 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 276 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Oct 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 03/0940Z from Region 3450 (S19W10). There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (04 Oct, 05 Oct, 06 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 487 km/s at 03/1947Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 03/1948Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 03/1138Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1297 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (04 Oct, 06 Oct) and quiet to active levels on day two (05 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 04 Oct to 06 Oct
Class M40%40%40%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       03 Oct 154
  Predicted   04 Oct-06 Oct 160/160/165
  90 Day Mean        03 Oct 161

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 02 Oct  010/013
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 03 Oct  009/011
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 04 Oct-06 Oct  008/008-013/010-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Oct to 06 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%35%15%
Minor storm05%15%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%10%15%
Minor storm20%30%25%
Major-severe storm20%55%25%

All times in UTC

<< Go to daily overview page

Latest news

Support SpaceWeatherLive.com!

A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!

SpaceWeatherLive Pro
Support SpaceWeatherLive with our merchandise
Check out our merchandise

Latest alerts

Get instant alerts!

Space weather facts

Last X-flare2024/12/08X2.2
Last M-flare2024/12/22M1.1
Last geomagnetic storm2024/12/17Kp5+ (G1)
Spotless days
Last spotless day2022/06/08
Monthly mean Sunspot Number
November 2024152.5 -13.9
December 2024103.3 -49.2
Last 30 days114 -43.9

This day in history*

Solar flares
12015M6.75
21998M3.34
32013M2.36
42013M1.97
52001M1.69
DstG
12002-67
22000-62G2
31989-60
42014-57
51982-53G1
*since 1994

Social networks