Viewing archive of Wednesday, 6 September 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Sep 06 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 249 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Sep 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
05/2339Z from Region 3421 (N14W14). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (07 Sep, 08 Sep,
09 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 461 km/s at 06/1724Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 06/1251Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
06/1225Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 830 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (07 Sep), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (08 Sep) and quiet levels on day three (09 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 07 Sep to 09 Sep
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Sep 147 Predicted 07 Sep-09 Sep 150/155/155 90 Day Mean 06 Sep 162
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Sep 014/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Sep 011/014 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Sep-09 Sep 010/012-008/010-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Sep to 09 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 20% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/12/17 | Kp5+ (G1) |
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