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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Oct 30 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 303 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Oct 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 30/0349Z from Region 3474 (S18W02). There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (31 Oct, 01 Nov, 02 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 592 km/s at 30/0249Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 29/2142Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 30/1208Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2102 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (31 Oct, 01 Nov) and quiet levels on day three (02 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 31 Oct to 02 Nov
Class M25%25%25%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       30 Oct 140
  Predicted   31 Oct-02 Nov 140/140/140
  90 Day Mean        30 Oct 150

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 29 Oct  021/026
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 30 Oct  014/016
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 31 Oct-02 Nov  010/010-008/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Oct to 02 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%15%10%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%15%15%
Minor storm30%20%20%
Major-severe storm25%20%15%

All times in UTC

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