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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Oct 30 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 303 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Oct 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
30/0349Z from Region 3474 (S18W02). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (31 Oct, 01 Nov,
02 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 592 km/s at 30/0249Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 29/2142Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
30/1208Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 2102 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (31 Oct, 01 Nov)
and quiet levels on day three (02 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 31 Oct to 02 Nov
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Oct 140 Predicted 31 Oct-02 Nov 140/140/140 90 Day Mean 30 Oct 150
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Oct 021/026 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Oct 014/016 Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Oct-02 Nov 010/010-008/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Oct to 02 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 20% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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