Viewing archive of Thursday, 26 October 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Oct 26 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 299 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Oct 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
26/1326Z. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one and two (27 Oct, 28 Oct)
and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a
slight chance for an M-class flare on day three (29 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 620 km/s at 26/1941Z. Total IMF reached 13
nT at 26/0819Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at
26/0908Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 158 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (27 Oct), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (28 Oct) and quiet to active levels on day
three (29 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 27 Oct to 29 Oct
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Oct 126 Predicted 27 Oct-29 Oct 126/126/130 90 Day Mean 26 Oct 152
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Oct 003/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Oct 015/019 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Oct-29 Oct 013/016-009/008-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Oct to 29 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 45% | 15% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 70% | 20% | 40% |
All times in UTC
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