Viewing archive of Friday, 29 September 2023

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Sep 29 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 272 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Sep 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at 29/1824Z. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (30 Sep, 01 Oct, 02 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 520 km/s at 29/0945Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 29/0945Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 29/0912Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3085 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (30 Sep, 02 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (01 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 30 Sep to 02 Oct
Class M30%30%30%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       29 Sep 155
  Predicted   30 Sep-02 Oct 152/148/145
  90 Day Mean        29 Sep 162

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 28 Sep  005/009
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 29 Sep  009/013
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 30 Sep-02 Oct  008/010-008/008-012/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Sep to 02 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%20%40%
Minor storm10%05%20%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%20%
Minor storm30%25%30%
Major-severe storm40%25%35%

All times in UTC

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