Viewing archive of Wednesday, 1 November 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Nov 01 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 305 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Nov 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
01/1226Z. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (02 Nov, 03 Nov,
04 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 523 km/s at 31/2148Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2117 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (02 Nov, 04
Nov) and quiet levels on day two (03 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 02 Nov to 04 Nov
| Class M | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Nov 159 Predicted 02 Nov-04 Nov 160/162/162 90 Day Mean 01 Nov 150
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Oct 006/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Nov 009/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Nov-04 Nov 009/008-006/005-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Nov to 04 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 10% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/11/10 | Kp5+ (G1) |
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