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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Nov 01 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 305 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Nov 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 01/1226Z. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (02 Nov, 03 Nov, 04 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 523 km/s at 31/2148Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2117 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (02 Nov, 04 Nov) and quiet levels on day two (03 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 02 Nov to 04 Nov
Class M35%35%35%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       01 Nov 159
  Predicted   02 Nov-04 Nov 160/162/162
  90 Day Mean        01 Nov 150

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 31 Oct  006/009
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 01 Nov  009/009
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 02 Nov-04 Nov  009/008-006/005-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Nov to 04 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%10%15%
Minor storm05%01%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm20%15%20%
Major-severe storm20%10%20%

All times in UTC

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