Viewing archive of Thursday, 5 October 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Oct 05 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 278 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Oct 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
05/1913Z from Region 3451 (N17W07). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (06 Oct, 07 Oct,
08 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 473 km/s at 05/1350Z. Total IMF
reached 8 nT at 04/2118Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-7 nT at 05/0102Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 368 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (06 Oct), unsettled to
minor storm levels on day two (07 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on
day three (08 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 06 Oct to 08 Oct
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Oct 156 Predicted 06 Oct-08 Oct 158/158/155 90 Day Mean 05 Oct 161
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Oct 008/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Oct 013/017 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Oct-08 Oct 015/018-020/025-009/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Oct to 08 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 55% | 65% | 35% |
All times in UTC
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