Viewing archive of Friday, 3 November 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Nov 03 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 307 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Nov 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
03/0132Z from Region 3480 (S11E64). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (04 Nov, 05 Nov,
06 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 506 km/s at 03/0844Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2847 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (04 Nov) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (05 Nov, 06 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 04 Nov to 06 Nov
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Nov 156 Predicted 04 Nov-06 Nov 158/156/156 90 Day Mean 03 Nov 149
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Nov 004/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Nov 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Nov-06 Nov 007/008-009/012-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Nov to 06 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/12/08 | X2.2 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/12/22 | M1.1 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/12/17 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| November 2024 | 152.5 -13.9 |
| December 2024 | 103.3 -49.2 |
| Last 30 days | 114 -43.9 |