Viewing archive of Thursday, 30 November 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Nov 30 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 334 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Nov 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
29/2241Z from Region 3500 (S18W18). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (01 Dec, 02 Dec, 03 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 451 km/s at 30/0027Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
29/2359Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
30/0212Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 394 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to severe storm levels on day one (01 Dec), quiet to
minor storm levels on day two (02 Dec) and quiet to unsettled levels on
day three (03 Dec). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold
on days one, two, and three (01 Dec, 02 Dec, 03 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 01 Dec to 03 Dec
| Class M | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Nov 167 Predicted 01 Dec-03 Dec 166/162/158 90 Day Mean 30 Nov 150
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Nov 005/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Nov 010/013 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Dec-03 Dec 037/054-018/022-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Dec to 03 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 35% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 60% | 20% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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