Viewing archive of Wednesday, 27 December 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Dec 27 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 361 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Dec 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
27/0317Z from Region 3529 (S20W62). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (28
Dec, 29 Dec, 30 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Peak solar wind
speed was not available due to the unreliability of the real time solar
wind source. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 27/1105Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5 nT at 27/1125Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 321 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (28 Dec) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (29 Dec, 30 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 28 Dec to 30 Dec
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Dec 149 Predicted 28 Dec-30 Dec 150/145/145 90 Day Mean 27 Dec 150
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Dec 004/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Dec 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Dec-30 Dec 013/015-008/008-009/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Dec to 30 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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