Viewing archive of Monday, 13 November 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Nov 13 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 317 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Nov 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
13/1331Z from Region 3484 (S15W76). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on day one (14 Nov) and expected to be low
with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days two and three (15 Nov,
16 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 1205 km/s at 13/0241Z. Total IMF
reached 15 nT at 13/1708Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-7 nT at 13/1130Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 592 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (14 Nov, 16
Nov) and quiet to active levels on day two (15 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 14 Nov to 16 Nov
| Class M | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Class X | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Nov 134 Predicted 14 Nov-16 Nov 132/126/122 90 Day Mean 13 Nov 148
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Nov 010/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Nov 014/016 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Nov-16 Nov 010/010-010/012-009/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Nov to 16 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 25% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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