Viewing archive of Tuesday, 14 November 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Nov 14 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 318 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Nov 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
14/1811Z. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (15
Nov, 16 Nov, 17 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 501 km/s at 14/0022Z. Total IMF reached 23
nT at 14/0000Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -15 nT at
14/0000Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 181 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (15 Nov), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (16 Nov) and quiet levels on day three (17 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 15 Nov to 17 Nov
| Class M | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Nov 124 Predicted 15 Nov-17 Nov 124/122/120 90 Day Mean 14 Nov 147
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Nov 015/015 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Nov 005/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Nov-17 Nov 009/012-009/010-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Nov to 17 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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